• CHANGE RESULTS VIEW
  • SORT BY

Local Housing Market Updates

Blog Home

Subscribe and receive email notifications of new blog posts.




rss logo RSS Feed
Home Buyer Tips | 34 Posts
Home Seller Tips | 47 Posts
Homeowner Tips | 39 Posts
Moving Tips | 3 Posts
Press Release | 4 Posts
Shreveport, LA | 5 Posts
Uncategorized | 1 Posts
May
25

MAY IS THE MOST IMPORTANT WORD
By Brad Gosslee, President, Coldwell Banker Gosslee

This is my May blog. And it's also an article that will use the word "may" over and over. That's because there remain a whole lot of unknowns about what may occur in housing over the near- and long-term future. But there remains one certainty…we are still in the one of the hottest and tightest times in real estate history that is especially challenging in Northwest Louisiana.

Let's start with today. We continue to see strong buyer demand met with a limited supply of available homes, causing continued rising prices.

I want to explain a bit more about the current market while I also look into the future of what may occur.

As you can tell from my blogs, I love digging into the statistics associated with the housing market. I believe the numbers give us insight into what is occurring and what may be coming down the road with prices, sales and the pace of the market.

One of the most telling numbers that indicates a down-the-road shift may be coming is in the number of home sales. The National Association of Realtors just came out with its Existing Home Sales Report looking at April sales and shared that the U.S. was down 5.4% in sales over last April. This was the third time in a row that the sales figures were below the previous month. And locally, our sales in April were down 8% over last year.

That rationale for a decrease in sales likely has a lot to do with the following:

  • Mortgage rates have ticked up. Locally, as I write this, we are around 5.3% for a 30-year fixed mortgage according to our friends at Fairway Mortgage.
  • Home prices have risen to record levels.
  • Prices and mortgage rates may be pulling some entry-level buyers out of the market.

At the same time, we are continuing to see the repercussions of a record low number of homes on the market. If there aren't enough homes for sale, logic would indicate we can't sell as many homes.

The buying frenzy of these last several years, which was fueled by historically low mortgage rates and the "work from anywhere" phenomenon, has never allowed for an already dipping pre-pandemic supply of homes to keep up. If we continue to see fewer buyers, we may start to see homes stay on the market longer, with fewer multiple bids and therefore prices would stabilize. After all, double-digit percentage increases are not sustainable.

But for now, we remain in dire need of more listings. I am hopeful that potential sellers who may have waited to "time the market" and sell at the peak, may recognize that we may be at that point and decide to list.

The inventory challenge has been exacerbated by another phenomenon of modern times – aging in place. The older generation, those 65+, have the highest homeownership rate according to the U.S. Census, with just under 79% in this age group owning their homes. This figure more than doubles the 38.8% reported for those under 35. But these older homeowners may not be selling. In fact, AARP reports that more than 90% of them want to remain in their homes.

It's just another piece of our inventory concerns. We entered May in Caddo, Bossier and Desoto Parishes with only 667 homes for sale. This was just a 1.3-month supply, and off nearly 78% from just four years ago. Even though 606 new listings came on the market in April, they are being sold really quickly. In fact, the median days on market locally for all sold homes was a ridiculously fast nine days, which was almost twice as fast as the national figure of 17.

We remain in the greatest "seller's market" of all-time. As this next chart shows, because inventory levels are so low, sellers have a huge negotiating advantage. You can see that by comparing back to 2018.

Four years ago, we had a very balanced market at our lower price points – at or near the six-month supply. In this environment, neither side has a negotiating advantage. The script flips to the buyer's advantage when there are more properties available than buyer demand. Taking a look at the chart below, this is evident in the higher price points in 2018. You can also see how severe today's lack of inventory is:

Price Range

April 2022 Available Homes/Month Supply

April 2018 Available Homes/Month Supply

Total

667/1.3

2,289/5.9

$100,000 & less

148/2.0

523/5.4

$100,000-$200,000

172/1.0

728/4.6

$200,000-$300,000

144/1.0

494/5.6

$300,000-$400,000

64/1.1

261/9.2

$400,000-$500,000

51/1.9

132/14.9

$500,000+

88/4.7

160/23.4

 

Now let's address sales and demand. While we are off a bit from last year, remember a year ago our frenzy was at full capacity. There were 469 home sales in April in Caddo, Bossier and Desoto Parishes. The drop of eight percent was off a record 510 a year ago. But if you look at our five-year April average of 426, we are actually running 10% ahead. So the demand is still there!

What's also interesting locally is that if we were selling more at the lower price points, we would be at record level pace. As this next chart shows, the move-up segments above $200,000 continue to show incredible sales strength.

Price Range

YoY Number of Home Sales NW LOUISIANA
(% change over April 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Bossier Parish (% change over April 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Caddo Parish (% change over April 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Desoto Parish (% change over April 2021

Total

1,723 (-4%)

649 (-10%)

1,021 (0%)

54 (-11%)

$100,000 & less

281 (+5%)

    66 50 (0%)

208 (+9%)

8 (-27%)

$100,000-$200,000

573 (-18%)

173 (-25%)

308 (-12%)

15 (-42%)

$200,000-$300,000

530 (+5%)

233 (-6%)

285 (+17%)

    12 (+0%)

$300,000-$400,000

194 (-1%)

112 (-2%)

74 (0%)

8 (0%)

$400,000-$500,000

84 (+12%)

48 (+55%)

32 (-22%)

4 (+100%)

$500,000-
$600,000

34 (+21%)

    11 (-35%)

17 (+55%)

6 (+400%)

$600,000+

27 (0%)

6 (-40%)

20 (+25%)

1 (+100%)

 

This is also the second straight month where we are not seeing dramatic increases in the number of sales over the previous year. In fact, because 2021 was such a strong sales year, we are even seeing large swings to the negative. But I urge you not to read into these shifts too much since they are compared to record levels. I am more focused on the price points that are still showing positive increases. A few months ago, we were seeing most of these in the plus 50-80% ranges. We are not seeing those same dramatic increases today. This may be an indicator that we are entering a more normalized market.

 

As you would expect with demand (buyers) still high being and a lack of supply, prices would continue to rise. And that is exactly what has occurred here and throughout the U.S.

Nationally, home prices have risen to a record median price of $391,200, up 14.8% over last year. For comparison's sake, it was $255,300 at this time in 2018. Locally we saw a similar April increase of 11% to $218,000. Thankfully our median priced home is $172,000 cheaper! Once again, the affordability of Northwest Louisiana is visible.

This next chart shows how we compare to the U.S. As you can see by what I've highlighted, our supply and pace is drastically lower than the nation:

 

U.S.

(change over April '21)

Northwest LA

(change over April '21)

Median Price

$391,200/+14.6%

$218,000/+11%

Number of Sales

5.61 million/-5.4%
(annualized)

469/-8%

Inventory

1.03 million/-10.4%

667/-14%

Months Supply

2.2/2.3

1.3/1.6

Median Days on Market

17/17

9/10

 

I wanted to close this month's blog with a portion of the actual script from our radio ads that run on our local radio stations. It addresses a seller's needs:   

NOW…MORE THAN EVER…SELLERS NEED A HIGHLY SKILLED….FULL TIME AGENT…..WHO IS WELL TRAINED ON PRICING AND NEGOTIATING MULTIPLE OFFERS.

THAT'S WHAT YOU WILL FIND IN A COLDWELL BANKER GOSSLEE AGENT…

REMEMBER…NOT ALL AGENTS ARE THE SAME…

YOUR TRUST HAS ALLOWED US TO BE THE #1 BROKERAGE IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA FOR 29 STRAIGHT YEARS.

This is not just marketing speak. It is the truth. Sellers face different challenges today than they ever have, including managing the nearly daily changes in prices along with the ability to properly choose and negotiate with the right buyer.

I am confident that our agents are the most skilled in the region and I applaud them for continuing to train, learn and grow.

Remember, there are no silly questions. If you have any, please reach out to one of our agents or feel free to reach out to me at bgosslee@cbgosslee.com.

Hope you have a great Memorial Day start to summer!

 

 

 

April
26

WE ARE TIGHTER THAN THE NATION
By Brad Gosslee, President, Coldwell Banker Gosslee

Let's get right to it. The housing market in Northwest Louisiana is tougher than what we are seeing across the nation.

The National Association of Realtors just came out with its Existing Home Sales Report looking at March sales and I found it striking how much tighter our market was. But before you think it is all gloom and doom, as we go on in this blog, there are some potentially promising signs.

Looking at the below chart, we are down in numerous categories compared to the overall U.S.:

  • Sales
  • Inventory (number of homes on the market)
  • Month supply
  • Median days on market which shows how fast homes are selling. In fact, our homes are selling almost 100% faster than in the rest of the nation.

 

U.S.

(change over March '21)

Northwest LA

(change over March '21)

Median Price

$375,300/-4.6%

$193,345/-1%

Number of Sales

5.77 million/-7.1%
(annualized)

491/-8%

Inventory

950,000/-9.5%

688/-11%

Months Supply

2.0/2.1

1.4/1.8

Median Days on Market

17/18

9/43

 

On the flip side, it is important to notice that our affordability levels are a HUGE positive. Our median priced home (the middle of all sales) was a whopping $181,955 less than the national price. Also, while our prices have appreciated from about $158,000 in March of 2019 to today's $193,345, we are seeing the pace of price increases slow.

We ended 2021 up 8% for the year to an overall median price of $198,950. This was another anomaly as traditionally I call our market "Steady Eddie" since we don't normally see huge annual increases. So far this year, prices are flat over this time last year.

Also, while most of 2020, and all of 2021, saw sales greatly influenced by historically-low mortgage rates, the work-from-home phenomenon and other pandemic-fueled sales, we may – I say "may" because none of us has a crystal ball – slowly begin to see a more normalized housing market.

But this can only occur if – and only if – we start to see more homes come on the market. While this will likely not happen overnight, here is what could start to happen:

  • If mortgage rates do continue to creep up into the mid/high 4% and low 5% levels, that may pull some potential buyers out of the market or they would be forced to only consider lower priced homes. Remember our price gains have already made it harder for first-time buyers to get into homeownership.
  • Fewer buyers would create more balance in the supply vs. demand equation and limit the number the number of multiple bids.
  • Homes would potentially stay on the market longer with prices leveling off.
  • If prices stabilize, this might allow potential sellers to recognize we've reached the "top of the market" and those interested might act.
  • More homes would then come on the market allowing us to begin returning to a more traditional market.

But we are definitely not there yet. Our demand is still really strong and inventory levels really low.

Sales is a great reflection of demand. While we are down 2% in sales over last year, remember this is off a record pace last year. Consider that since March 2018, just four years ago, we are:

  • We are up 29% in total sales
  • We approximately doubled the sales figures in the mid-level ranges
  • The $400,000+ luxury market is up 311% in sales

Price Range

March 2022 Sales

March 2018 Sales

Total

490

379

$100,000 & less

81

103

$100,000-$200,000

176

166

$200,000-$300,000

149

76

$300,000-$400,000

47

23

$400,000-$500,000

23

7

$500,000+

14

            2       

 

I think the major reason for the year-over-year sales slowdown is a reflection of our inventory remaining ridiculously low. Last February was our lowest inventory level ever with only 667 homes on the market. Today we are at only 688. This equates to a major seller's market with a paltry 1.4 month supply, far below the 5-6 month range we need for a balanced market where neither buyer nor seller has a negotiation advantage.

This chart shows the lack of supply compared to five years ago. Notice how the month supply has also dropped dramatically, especially in the mid-level price points:

Price Range

March 2022 Available Homes/Month Supply

March 2018 Available Homes/Month Supply

Total

688/1.4

2,222/5.5

$100,000 & less

181/2.4

456/4.7

$100,000-$200,000

168/1.0

745/4.8

$200,000-$300,000

127/0.9

495/5.6

$300,000-$400,000

64/1.2

263/9.5

$400,000-$500,000

51/1.9

116/13.7

$500,000+

93/5.1

145/21

 

If you are looking for a positive sign of a more stabilized market, you'd look at our most expensive homes where the month supply, which had come down dramatically from the 20-month level prior to the pandemic, has leveled off in the 5-month range for a while.

The impact of the inventory challenge is really noticeable in the $300,000-$400,000 range where only 64 homes were available. This sector has been fueled by move up buyers who took advantage of their equity and historically-low mortgage rates to buy larger and more expensive homes. We are down in this price range 12% across the region, 17% in Caddo Parish and 10% in Bossier Parish.

Price Range

YoY Number of Home Sales NW LOUISIANA
(% change over March 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Bossier Parish (% change over March 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Caddo Parish (% change over March 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Desoto Parish (% change over March 2021

Total

1,252 (-2%)

466 (-7%)

744 (+1%)

42 (0%)

$100,000 & less

224 (+14%)

50 (+9%)

169 (+16%)

5 (0%)

$100,000-$200,000

425 (-14%)

128 (-23%)

282 (-8%)

15 (-29%)

$200,000-$300,000

372 (+8%)

165 (+2%)

198 (+14%)

     9 (+0%)

$300,000-$400,000

134 (-12%)

79 (-10%)

50 (-17%)

5 (0%)

$400,000-$500,000

56 (+14%)

30 (+58%)

23 (-18%)

3 (+100%)

$500,000-
$600,000

24 (+4%)

     8 (-38%)

12 (+20%)

4 (+400%)

$600,000+

17 (-11%)

6 (0%)

10 (-23%)

1 (+100%)

 

I am so proud of our agents. Coldwell Banker Gosslee has led the local real estate industry for 29-straight years. We really believe that full-time agents deserve full-time support. And today's market certainly demands full-time agents who have proper, non-stop training who can be in constant communications with their clients.

Our behind-the-scenes team are unsung heroes. They work closely with our agents to assist them in attracting buyers, marketing your home and handling back-end details, which allows our agents to attend training classes, network with others and work closely with you.

While none of us has been through a market quite like this, we have been in business since 1960 and have amassed great knowledge and experiences. Both buyers and sellers NEED that today.

I want to re-iterate what I wrote last month:

Our agents are doing an incredible job in explaining to their sellers and buyers what is happening in the housing market. It is a stressful time on both sides. Here is why:

  • Sellers need to identify where they want to move and ensure that their next potential home is available. Our agents are connecting them with agents in their next community to assist them.
  • Sellers then have to be prepared for the fast-pace of the sale. If they get multiple bids they will eventually have to choose who they want to sell to. Our agents handle the negotiations and help the seller understand the complexities of each offer.
  • Our agents also work with their seller to create "contingencies" that often state when the sale will become final predicated on when the seller can leave and move into their next home.
  • Buyers are stressed because they have to move very quickly. They don't have as many choices as in previous years. Their agent may have to have the buyer make a quick decision and offer.
  • Buyers are also facing rejection. They may not win a bidding war and many are frustrated that they have the down payment funds and want to take advantage of the low mortgage rates, but they can't buy the home they want.

To those who are considering selling your home, I would encourage you to have a conversation with one of our agents. They can help you understand market conditions, give you a look at what your home is worth, help you meet with an agent where you are considering moving to (if it is out of town), and answer any questions you have.

Of course, you should feel free to reach out to me at bgosslee@cbgosslee.com.

See you next month!

March
25

DREAMING AND TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE MARKET
By Brad Gosslee, President, Coldwell Banker Gosslee

I'd like to start this month's blog by asking you to click on this link and watch this video from Coldwell Banker. While valuable, you don't even have to watch the last 26 seconds where our ad agency promoted features on the coldwellbanker.com web site.

The start of the video, which is the national TV commercial that is running throughout March Madness basketball and elsewhere, talks about how the increase in home prices is allowing so many homeowners to take advantage of their increased home equity and move on in the next phase of their lives.

I love the last line of the video. "Your dreams don't have to be just dreams."

We are seeing this play out here with so many of our clients.

Now let's take a deeper dive into how buyer demand and lack of available homes have driven home prices up.

Let's start with buyer demand. There were 388 home sales in Northwest Louisiana in February. This is stunning. Our 5-year average in February, a month where we are normally pretty slow, is 320 homes. And we are even higher than last February when pandemic-related sales grew our total to 365.

Drilling down a bit deeper, we are also seeing that Caddo Parish is leading in sales, up 9% versus last year, while Bossier Parish is down 8%. This is not because Bossier has suddenly become unpopular. Instead, it is a direct reflection that there are not enough homes on the market to meet the demand.

Price Range

YoY Number of Home Sales NW LOUISIANA
(% change over Feb. 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Bossier Parish (% change over Feb. 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Caddo Parish (% change over Feb. 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Desoto Parish (% change over Feb. 2021

Total

759 (+2%)

276 (-8%)

457 (+9%)

26 (+8%)

$100,000 & less

143 (+20%)

24 (-27%)

116 (+33%)

3 (0%)

$100,000-$200,000

246 (-16%)

68 (-33%)

169 (-5%)

9 (-31%)

$200,000-$300,000

223 (+18%)

109 (+22%)

108 (+14%)

     6 (+20%)

$300,000-$400,000

87 (-5%)

51 (-7%)

34 (+0%)

2 (-33%)

$400,000-$500,000

33 (+22%)

15 (+25%)

17 (+13%)

1 (+100%)

$500,000-
$600,000

15 (+7%)

     4 (-60%)

7 (+75%)

4 (+400%)

$600,000+

12 (+0%)

5 (+25%)

6 (-25%)

1 (+100%)

This next chart shows that the dramatic shift in sales is occurring in the more expensive price brackets. This is because so many have built up equity in their current home and they used the incredibly low mortgage rates to "move up." At the same time, there have been plenty of renters who saved for a down payment, who could afford a more expensive home because of those ultra-low mortgage rates:

Price Range

February 2022 Sales

February 2018 Sales

Total

388

334

$100,000 & less

62

95

$100,000-$200,000

122

133

$200,000-$300,000

119

70

$300,000-$400,000

50

21

$400,000-$500,000

20

8

$500,000+

15

      7       

We now move on to supply – what we call inventory. We are at an all-time low of only 667 homes on the market. This equates to a 1.3 month supply, another all-time low. A year ago, we were at what I then called a "drastically low" 1.8 months. It was 4.5 months just two years ago. There were 437 new listings that came on the market, but most of these were scooped up extremely quickly. In fact, homes stayed on the market just 16 days in February, six days faster than last February.

To put all of this in perspective, real estate professionals usually refer to 5-6 month supply as being a balanced market. Less than that, we have a seller's market. Above that, it's considered a buyer's market. We are in a major seller's market that creates multiple bids with the seller in the negotiating driver's seat.

This chart shows the lack of supply compared to five years ago. Notice how the month supply has also dropped dramatically, especially in the mid-level price points:

Price Range

February 2022 Available Homes/Month Supply

February 2018 Available Homes/Month Supply

Total

667/1.3

2,128/5.5

$100,000 & less

185/3.0

442/4.7

$100,000-$200,000

170/1.0

734/4.8

$200,000-$300,000

124/0.8

462/5.1

$300,000-$400,000

65/1.2

229/8.6

$400,000-$500,000

42/1.6

106/12.5

$500,000+ 

81/4.4

145/20.5

Thus, the rise in prices.

The median price – the middle of all 388 homes sold in February – was $205,000, while the average was $225,573, up 6% and 5% respectively. Looking at median prices as a guide, here is a striking note – if you bought your home in March of 2019, your home's value may have increased by $53,884.

This increase leads to greater home equity – the value of your home minus what you currently owe on your mortgage.

Greater equity is leading so many homeowners to live their dream!

Our agents are doing an incredible job in explaining to their sellers and buyers what is happening in the housing market. It is a stressful time on both sides. Here is why:

  • Sellers need to identify where they want to move and ensure that their next potential home is available. Our agents are connecting them with agents in their next community to assist them.
  • Sellers then have to be prepared for the fast-pace of the sale. If they get multiple bids, they will eventually have to choose who they want to sell to. Our agents handle the negotiations and help the seller understand the complexities of each offer.
  • Our agents also work with their seller to create "contingencies" that often state when the sale will become final predicated on when the seller can leave and move into their next home.
  • Buyers are stressed because they have to move very quickly. They don't have as many choices as in previous years. Their agent may have to have the buyer make a quick decision and offer.
  • Buyers are also facing rejection. They may not win a bidding war and many are frustrated that they have the down payment funds and want to take advantage of the low mortgage rates, but they can't buy the home they want.

I want to take a moment to salute our agents. They are working so hard and navigating the tightest real estate market we have ever seen. Their training and ability to work closely with our support staff is allowing them to rise to the top. They know what to do. They know how to do it. And because they have so much power behind them, they are able to focus on their client's needs exceptionally well.

If you are ready to dream, please reach out to one of our 150+ agents who can help. Or, feel free to reach out to me at bgosslee@cbgosslee.com.

 

 

March
22

February 2022 Market Overview
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes only)

To view or download the full report click here.

February Summary:  Sales demand remains high.  Average price up.  Inventory at all-time record low.

Sales:  Strong demand continued in February, posting the highest sales activity we've seen since February 2007 (which was the peak of the market before the crash of 2008).  There were 388 sales this February versus 365 last year. To give this some context, the 5 year average for February is only 320.  Year to date, we are slightly ahead of last year (up +2%) which was a record at the time. These results differ though when you drill down on each parish. Sales in Caddo are up +9% versus last year while Bossier parish is currently down –8%.  Desoto parish is up +8% versus last year but that is really only 2 additional sales.  Bossier's recent slow down is similar to what Desoto experienced last year where there were not enough available listings we able to meet demand.  While new listings are coming on-line every day, we need the new listing rate to increase or we will begin to see a slow down in closings because would-be buyers won't be able to find what they are looking for.   Builders are trying to meet this demand with new construction but lack of labor and materials is an ongoing challenge.

Unit Sales YTD by price range vs. last year:

Inventory:  Listing inventory bottomed in May of last year at 774. Since then, it climbed back up to the low 900's where it hovered for the last few months of 2021. It has now dropped again to a record level of 667 which is officially an all-time low.  With 388 homes sold in February and only 667 currently on the market, the Monthly Supply (using the 12 month trailing average) of homes is now only 1.3 which down from 1.5 last month and officially an all-time low. This is incredibly low for the Shreveport-Bossier market.  Just 12 months ago, the monthly supply was 1.8, and two years ago it was 4.5. There were 437 new listings that came on the market in February in all price ranges but the majority were put under contract shortly after hitting the market.  There are currently 626 properties in pending sale status.  This is up from 618 last month.   

PricesWith the continued low inventory and strong sales demand, we continue to see prices rise.  The average price this February was $225,573 versus $201,626 last month and $214,150 last year.   Year to date, the average price is $214,089 versus 213,813 last year.  On a price per square foot basis, average prices so far this year are $107.87/ft versus $104.73/ft last year. 

February 2022 Comparative Market Statistics
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes Only)
 
 
February 2022 Absorption Rates
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, & Desoto Parishes Only)

The following figures are through the month of February 2022

Currently, there are 667 total homes for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 502 homes have sold per month on average.
That's a 1.3 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 437 homes came on the market.

Currently there are 185 homes priced below $100,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 74 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 2.5 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 71 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 170 homes priced between $100,000 and $199,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 177 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.0 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 140 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 124 homes priced between $200,000 and $299,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 149 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 0.8 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 121 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 65 homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 57 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's an 1.2 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 42 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 42 homes priced between $400,000 and $499,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 26 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.6 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 31 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 81 homes priced above $500,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 18 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 4.4 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 24 homes came on the market in this price range.

 

Important Note: A 6 month supply is considered to be a balanced market.
Under 6 months is a seller's market.
Over 6 months is a buyer's market. 
Data Source: Northwest Louisiana Association of Realtors MLS, Inc 3/9/2022
Author: Brad Gosslee of Coldwell Banker Gosslee
Information believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.
February
25

WOW…IT'S THE ONLY WORD
By Brad Gosslee, President, Coldwell Banker Gosslee

I've been in real estate for a long time and cannot remember a market like this. Not only are we seeing continued record demand, but the supply of homes for sale has shrunk again to an all-time low. And while normally I call Northwest Louisiana a "Steady Eddie" market where we don't traditionally follow the patterns of the rest of the nation, today we are just like most of America, and in some instances, have an even more challenging market.

Before I get into the state of the market and a look at the numbers, I wanted to provide some thoughts to both buyers and sellers.

As I now routinely share, those who are interested in selling their home are in a great position. We have plenty of buyers. This supply vs. demand imbalance has created a "seller's market" where sellers are in the negotiating advantage. While we discourage sellers from trying to time the market, we may be nearing a peak of rising prices simply because increasing mortgage rates may eventually pull some prospective buyers out of the market. Even the slight difference in monthly payments associated with a 4% mortgage rate might be a stretch for some. As this occurs, bidding wars cool, prices begin to level off and sellers don't see the same annual appreciation as we've had over the last few years.

This places buyers in a precarious situation. Many have down payment funds, solid jobs and every other intangible needed to become a homeowner. They just don't have enough homes to choose from. It's therefore critically important to retain the services of a full-time real estate professional who has their "ear-to-the-ground" and knows what homes are coming onto the market. Remember, agents with companies like Coldwell Banker Gosslee who do well in attracting sellers are hugely beneficial today. They have inside knowledge and that advantage can position you well in being ahead of the buying pack.

Potential buyers need to be ready to move quickly. Along with having your must-have/nice-to-have/not-that-important list ready-to-go, you also will need mortgage pre-approval. Don't miss this step! Along with telling a potential seller that you are a great buyer candidate, the pre-approval process also lets you best understand the price-range you can afford and want to be in.

If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me or any one of our agents. We are here to help.

Now let's jump into the most recent statistics that prove, once again, we are in a "Wow" market like no other. Normally January is a slow month in real estate, but not this year. There were 368 sales last month, 9 less than last year but 88 more than our rolling five-year average of 280, an increase of 31%!

We must remember that our local sales decline, and the national year-over-year 2.6% decrease according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is lower from the off-the-charts, fast-paced, pandemic-fueled housing market of 2020-2021. Demand remains strong and we expect it will remain so for the foreseeable future. Need proof? We entered January 2022 with 618 pending sales – indicating they are in some phase of the purchase cycle. That's a lot. Another reason why we don't anticipate a reduction in buyer activity is rising mortgage rates. As we head to the 4% range, we will likely see a sense of urgency for some buyers who want to lock-in lower rates.

At the same time that sales are brisk, our inventory levels have shrunk. We entered February with only 737 homes on the market – an all-time low – which is 140 less than last year when I also shared how low we were. This equates to a super-low 1.5 month supply. It was 1.9 months last year and 4.4 months two years ago. To put that into context, our normal rate is about 5-6 months.

We are mirroring the supply problem seen nationwide. NAR recently shared its Existing Home Sales Report that showed there were a record-low 860,000 homes for sale nationwide. This was down 16.5% over January 2021 and equated to a 1.6 month supply.

Another area where we are in lock-step with the nation is in the pace of our housing market. Nationally, homes are selling in just 19 days, down from 21 a year ago. And a whopping 79% of all U.S. homes sold in 30 days-or-less. Locally we are at the same 19 days, but much quicker than last year's 27 days.

But we differed from the nation in one critical area – prices. Nationally, NAR reported the median (middle of all sold homes) price was $350,300, up 15.4% over January 2021. But the median price in Caddo, Bossier and Desoto Parishes was down 3.0% to $182,450. I don't think I've used "down" and "prices" in the same sentence for a while. But, there is a big reason for this. There were 19 more $100,000-or-less home sales last month than there were a year ago – Caddo Parish was up 49% - along with a slower pace at the top price points.

This chart compares how Northwest Louisiana compares to the U.S. in a variety of categories according to NAR's Existing Home Sales report:

 

U.S.
(change over Jan. '21)
Northwest LA
(change over Jan. '21)

Median Price

$350,300/+15.8

$182,450/-3%

Number of Sales

6.5 million/-2.3%
(annualized)

368/-2%

Inventory

860,000/-16.5%

737/-16%

Months' Supply

1.6/1.9

1.5/1.9

Median Days on Market

19/21

19/27

Now let's get even closer to where you live. Caddo Parish was especially strong in the lowest price point while the $200,000-$300,000 range also continues to boom. This chart shows how the various price points fared in January sales in our three parishes:

Price Range

YoY Number of Home Sales NW LOUISIANA
(% change over Jan. 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Bossier Parish (% change over Jan. 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Caddo Parish (% change over Jan. 2021

YoY Number of Home Sales in Desoto Parish (% change over Jan. 2021

Total

368 (-2%)

122 (-21%)

239 (+13%)

9 (-25%)

$100,000 & less

79 (+32%)

12 (-14%)

67 (+49%)

2 (+100%)

$100,000-$200,000

124 (-18%)

35 (-33%)

87 (-4%)

2 (-75%)

$200,000-$300,000

104 (+13%)

48 (+12%)

54 (+13%)

     2 (0%)

$300,000-$400,000

36 (-25%)

19 (-41%)

16 (+7%)

1 (0%)

$400,000-$500,000

13 (-13%)

4 (-50%)

8 (+14%)

1 (+100%)

$500,000-
$600,000

5 (-17%)

     2 (-50%)

2 (0%)

1 (100%)

$600,000+

7 (+40%)

2 (0%)

5 (+67%)

0 (0%)

I also want to share these next two charts that break down our January sales and inventory in Northwest Louisiana over the last 5 years. The increases in sales are dramatic:

Price Range

January 2022 Sales

January 2018 Sales

Total

368

253

$100,000 & less

79

72

$100,000-$200,000

124

105

$200,000-$300,000

104

53

$300,000-$400,000

36

16

$400,000-$500,000

13

3

$500,000+

12

4

Now compare the increase in sales to the decrease over the same period of time in the number of available homes and you'll clearly see the supply vs. demand imbalance:

Price Range

January 2022 Available Homes

January 2018 Available Homes

Total

737

2,126

$100,000 & less

220

445

$100,000-$200,000

213

761

$200,000-$300,000

133

456

$300,000-$400,000

59

221

$400,000-$500,000

37

101

$500,000+

75

142

You can see that our market needs more listings. This makes it an ideal time to put your home on the market IF you are prepared to do so. That preparation involves being emotionally ready and having as much information as possible.

Along with knowing the value of your home and the equity you have gained, our agents are also helping their clients – and potential clients – connect with a quality agent in the market they are interested in moving to if it's outside of our region. This added value is proving to be extremely important as that agent, who has obvious local expertise where they live and work, helps answer many questions and address concerns that are part of the decision to sell.

If you enjoyed this blog and want to see even more data and information, take a look at our Coldwell Banker Gosslee Monthly Report. And of course, feel free to reach out to me at bgosslee@cbgosslee.com.

 

 

 

 

 

February
25

January 2022 Market Overview
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes only)

To view or download the full report click here.

January Summary:  Sales demand remains high.  Average price down a little.  Inventory at all-time record low.

Sales:  Historically speaking, sales this January were very strong but they were down a little compared to last January. There were 368 sales posted this January versus 377 last year.  That's only 9 less sales, but still down.  The 5 year average for January on the other hand is only 280. So while we did not top January sales from last year (which was a record by the way) we were still up a whopping +31% above our normal sales average for January.  These results differ though when you drill down on each parish. Sales in Caddo were actually up +13% versus January last year while Desoto parish was down –25% and Bossier parish was down –21%.    This is primarily due to the lack of available inventory for buyers to purchase.  We need more listings to meet the current buyer demand.   Builders are trying to meet this demand with new construction but lack of labor and materials is an ongoing challenge.

Unit Sales YTD by price range vs. last year:

Inventory:  Listing inventory bottomed in May of last year at 774. Since then, it climbed back to the low 900's where hovered for the last few months. However, it has now dropped again back down to 737 which is officially an all-time low.  With 368 homes sold in January and only 737 currently on the market, the Monthly Supply (using the 12 month trailing average) of homes is now only 1.5 which is unchanged from last month. This is incredibly low for the Shreveport-Bossier market.  Just 12 months ago, the monthly supply was 1.9, and two years ago it was 4.4. There were 499 new listings that came on the market in January in all price ranges but the majority were put under contract shortly after hitting the market.  There are currently 618 properties in pending sale status.  This is up from 562 last month.   

PricesWith the continued low inventory and strong sales demand, you would think prices would continue to climb every month.  However, the average home price declined this January.  Primarily because there were more sales in the Under $100k price segment than we had been seeing lately.  The average price this January was $201,626 versus $231,165 last month and $213,370 last year. On a price per square foot basis though, sale prices were pretty much flat at $103.58/ft versus $103.97/ft last year.  

January 2022 Comparative Market Statistics
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes Only)

January 2022 Absorption Rates
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, & Desoto Parishes Only)

The following figures are through the month of January 2022

Currently, there are 737 total homes for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 500 homes have sold per month on average.
That's a 1.5 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 499 homes came on the market.
 
Currently there are 220 homes priced below $100,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 74 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 3.0 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 102 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 213 homes priced between $100,000 and $199,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 179 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.2 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 142 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 133 homes priced between $200,000 and $299,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 147 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 0.9 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 144 homes came on the market in this price range.
 
Currently there are 59 homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 56 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's an 1.1 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 59 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 37 homes priced between $400,000 and $499,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 26 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.5 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 28 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 75 homes priced above $500,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 18 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 4.1 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 24 homes came on the market in this price range.

Important Note: A 6 month supply is considered to be a balanced market.
Under 6 months is a seller's market.
Over 6 months is a buyer's market.
 
Data Source: Northwest Louisiana Association of Realtors MLS, Inc 2/16/2022
Author: Brad Gosslee of Coldwell Banker Gosslee
Information believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.
February
4

December 2021 Market Overview
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes only)

To view or download the full report click here.

December Summary:  Sales up.  Average price higher again.  Inventory levels dropped back down to record lows.

Sales:  Sales in December finished off 2021 with a bang. There were 468 sales posted this December versus 446 last month and 450 last year....and yes, another record was broken. This was the most sales ever posted in any December on record. The 5 year average for December is only 356 so we were up about +31% above our normal sales average for December. Sales year to date for 2021 wrapped up the year up +10% which is incredible considering last year was up +13% over 2019. If you compare 2021 to 2019, sales were up a whopping +24%...WOW!. These results differ though when you drill down on each parish. Sales in Desoto parish actually ended up down –15% for 2021 due to the very low inventory available for sale. The normal amount of speculative new construction houses we usually see in Desoto were not built in 2021 due to the dramatic price increase in lumber and other building materials. This was the case in Caddo and Bossier too but these parishes still had ample existing inventory available for buyers to purchase when new construction slowed. Caddo had the most available homes for sale which is why it was up the most last year at +14% and Bossier wasn't far behind up +8% for the year.  

Unit Sales YTD by price range vs. last year:

Inventory:  Listing inventory bottomed in May of this year at 774. Since then, it has climbed back to the low 900's where hovered for the last few months. However, it has now dropped again back down to 770 which is officially an all time low.  With 468 homes sold in December and only 770 currently on the market, the Monthly Supply (using the 12 month trailing average) of homes is now only 1.5 which is down from 1.8 last month. This is incredibly low for the Shreveport-Bossier market.  Just 12 months ago, the monthly supply was 2.3, and two years ago it was 4.5. There were 354 new listings that came on the market in December in all price ranges but the majority were put under contract shortly after hitting the market.  There are currently 562 properties in pending sale status.  This is down from 590 last month. This decline in buyer activity is expected as December and January all always the slowest months of the year.  It will be very telling for 2022 to see how buyer activity goes in February and beyond.

PricesWith the continued low inventory and strong sales activity in the higher price ranges, the average home price continued to climb all year. Year to date, the average home price for the year finished up at $221,840 versus $200,619 last year. On a price per square foot basis, sale prices for the year averaged $109.75. per sq.ft. versus $100.08 last year.  

December 2021 Comparative Market Statistics
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes Only)
  

 
December 2021 Absorption Rates
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, & Desoto Parishes Only)

The following figures are through the month of December 2021

Currently, there are 770 total homes for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 500 homes have sold per month on average.
That's a 1.5 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 354 homes came on the market.
  
Currently there are 223 homes priced below $100,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 72 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 3.1 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 44 homes came on the market in this price range.  
  
Currently there are 220 homes priced between $100,000 and $199,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 182 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.2 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 116 homes came on the market in this price range.
  
Currently there are 141 homes priced between $200,000 and $299,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 146 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.0 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 112 homes came on the market in this price range.
    
Currently there are 73 homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 57 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's an 1.3 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 50 homes came on the market in this price range.
    
Currently there are 41 homes priced between $400,000 and $499,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 26 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.6 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 16 homes came on the market in this price range.
   
Currently there are 72 homes priced above $500,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 18 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 3.9 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 16 homes came on the market in this price range.
   
Important Note: A 6 month supply is considered to be a balanced market.
Under 6 months is a seller's market.
Over 6 months is a buyer's market.
  
Data Source: Northwest Louisiana Association of Realtors MLS, Inc 1/14/2022
Author: Brad Gosslee of Coldwell Banker Gosslee
Information believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.
January
26

THANK YOU AND MORE
By Brad Gosslee, President, Coldwell Banker Gosslee

I want to start this month's local housing update with three BIG thank yous! We ended 2021 as the top real estate company in Northwest Louisiana once again. It was our 29th straight year at the top! And it wouldn't have happened without our support staff, agents, buyers and sellers.

I am convinced that our support staff is not only the best in Shreveport and Bossier, but the best in Louisiana. They are incredibly invested in the success of our agents and do so much of the behind-the-scenes work and details involved in real estate transactions allowing our agents to focus on serving the needs of their clients.

Our agents participated in more than 2205 closed transactions last year leading to Coldwell Banker Gosslee setting a record with $570 million in sales volume (the total price of those homes). With so little inventory and incredible buyer demand, our agents showed their skill, professionalism and dedication while they guided their clients through one of the most challenging real estate markets we have ever encountered.

Our clients benefitted from the effort our staff and agents put forth. We understand that there is stiff competition and appreciate your trust. It's even more humbling for you to turn to us during a market like this. You challenge us every day to put forth maximum effort and deliver outstanding results. THANK YOU!

As I have said, this past year was one of the most difficult markets we have ever seen. While normally Northwest Louisiana doesn't mimic the national trends and we record steady and slow price appreciation, this year was different. The number of sales in Caddo, Bossier and Desoto Parishes surpassed 6,000 (6,027) for the first time ever, a 10% jump over 2020 which was up 13% over the previous year. That is a lot of buyer activity.

We got to the record because December was the busiest last month EVER. There were 468 home sales, 112 (+31%) more than the rolling five-year December average. In fact, November and December combined for 914 home sales alone. All of this happened despite Desoto Parish being off 15% in sales largely because of the extremely low number of homes on the market.

With so many buyers in the market, largely because of mortgage rates that spent much of 2021 at-or-near record levels, homes are being gobbled up quickly. We are now at a record low of only 770 homes on the market. This equates to a 1.5 month supply compared to 4.5 months two years ago.

This chart shows overall Northwest Louisiana sales and how they have changed over the last 5 years in December alone. The increases are dramatic:

Price Range

December 2021 Sales

December 2020 Sales

December 2017 Sales

% change over last 5 years

Total

468

450

348

34.5%

$100,000 & less

51

80

99

-48.4%

$100,000-$200,000

178

166

130

35.8%

$200,000-$300,000

133

122

84

58.3%

$300,000-$400,000

60

51

28

114.3%

$400,000-$500,000

27

15

3

800.0%

$500,000+

19

16

             4      

375.0%

 

The speed of the market is also intense. Locally, our median days on market – how fast homes sell - is a ridiculously fast 15 days, down 56% from a super-fast 2020. This figure was even lower (12 days) for the 468 homes that sold in December. We are below the national median of 19 days according to the National Association of Realtors which also shared that 79% of all U.S. homes in December sold within 30 days of being on the market.

Now look at this chart that breaks down where the greatest activity occurred for all of 2021. It's fascinating to see how our "move up" market played out with large percentage increases in the $300,000-$500,000 ranges, especially in Caddo and Bossier Parishes:

Price Range

YoY Number of Home Sales NW LOUISIANA
(% change over 2020

YoY Number of Home Sales in Bossier Parish (% change over 2020

YoY Number of Home Sales in Caddo Parish (% change over 2020

YoY Number of Home Sales in Desoto Parish (% change over 2020

Total

6,027 (+10%)

2,410 (+8%)

3,421 (+14%)

196 (-15%)

$100,000 & less

873 (-18%)

216 (-18%)

625 (-17%)

32 (-26%)

$100,000-$200,000

2,180 (+8%)

697 (-4%)

1,413 (+14%)

70 (+21%)

$200,000-$300,000

1,760 (+16%)

865 (+6%)

859 (+36%)

     36 (-48%)

$300,000-$400,000

685 (+30%)

402 (+47%)

250 (+21%)

33 (-31%)

$400,000-$500,000

310 (+63%)

151 (+66%)

141 (+62%)

18 (+50%)

$500,000-
$600,000

101 (+25%)

     44 (+29%)

55 (+20%)

2 (100%)

$600,000+

118 (+71%)

35 (35%)

78 (+81%)

5 (400%)

 

And, at the risk of sounding like grade school economist, the supply vs. demand equation naturally leads to higher prices. Our median home price (middle of all sold homes) in Northwest Louisiana finished the year at $198,950, 8% higher than a year ago while our average price ended the year up 11% to $221,840. Our agents have always heard me talk about our market as "Steady Eddie" where our price appreciation is normally 3% or 4%. But now we are just slightly behind the national price increase of 15.8%.

Yes, you read that right. The National Association of Realtors recently reported that December saw the median price across the nation skyrocket to $358,000. At the same time inventory levels (the number of homes on the market) dropped below 1 million for the first time ever to 910,000. This was 14.2% below 2020's already depleted levels. The supply equates to just a 1.8 month supply.

I'd like to focus a bit more on our supply levels. Previously I shared that we currently have fewer than 800 homes on the market. We entered 2021 with more than 1,000. Back in July 2018, we had about 2,300 homes for sale! This chart puts things in even greater perspective:

Price Range

# Homes That Came on the Market in Dec. 2021

Current Inventory

Current Month Supply

Dec. 2020 Inventory

Dec. 2019 Inventory

Dec. 2018 Inventory

Dec. 2017 Inventory

Total

354

770

1.5

1,027

1,813

2,058

2,126

$100,000 & less

44

223

4.4

234

348

437

447

$100,000-$200,000

116

220

1.2

349

665

667

771

$200,000-$300,000

112

141

1.1

176

394

467

448

$300,000-$400,000

50

73

1.2

101

165

223

230

$400,000-$500,000

16

41

1.5

69

100

106

102

$500,000+

16

72

3.9

98

141

158

128

 

One of the major reasons that I write that blog is to make certain that our local buyers and sellers know what is occurring here vs. what they hear about the national scene. Here is a look at how we compare nationally using the National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales report as a guide:

 

U.S.

(change over Dec. '20)

Northwest LA

(change over Dec. '20)

Median Price

$358,000/+15.8%

$203,450/+8%

Number of Sales

6.18 million/-7.1%
(annualized)

468/+4%

Inventory

910,000/-14.2%

770/-25%

Months' Supply

1.8/1.9

1.5/2.3

Median Days on Market

19/21

12/29

 As I have shared often, this rise in equity coupled with demand could make this a great time to sell your home. But you really need as much information as possible and I encourage those considering selling to contact one of our agents. They can answer any questions you might have, create a roadmap for you and also potentially connect with you with a great agent in the city or town you are thinking of relocating too. And, if you are doing a crosstown move, obviously we can help here too.

As I close out this month's blog, I want to encourage those who want even more information to utilize the Coldwell Banker Gosslee Monthly Report that shares great data from the Northwest Louisiana Association of Realtors MLS.

And once again, thank you for making us the top real estate company in Northwest Louisiana for the 29th straight year! Wow!

December
24

MOVE UP SELLERS MAY FUEL THE MARKET

We have come to the holiday season and I hope everyone is excited to celebrate while also being safe. There is no denying the last two years have been momentous and that includes the state of the national and local housing markets.

The big news in real estate continues to be that so many potential sellers have stayed on the sidelines which has caused our housing inventory to diminish. The supply vs. demand imbalance, fueled by the pandemic and all-time low mortgage rates, has created higher prices.

We ended November with only 899 homes on the market in Northwest Louisiana which is 18.2% less than last year at this time. This equates to just a 1.8 month supply. We are actually worse off than the national numbers reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Nationwide, there are only 1.11 million homes available, a 2.1 month supply. This is down 13.9% over last year.

But there is a sliver of good news. The number of available homes in our three parishes are up from our low point of 774 back in May. And, according to Realtor.com, we might start to see more homes come online as many may decide to put their homes on the market. They reported that 26% of all surveyed homeowners expect to sell their home in the next 12 months. It shared that the boom in sales would likely be led by the younger generations which would seemingly help the lower priced segment of the market. The report showed that 49% of Millennial homeowners plan to sell followed by Gen Z (34%), Gen X (26%), Baby Boomers (11%) and Silent Generation (8%).

These numbers are even more dramatic when compared to Realtor.com's similar report from the spring when only 10% of the entire homeowner pool said they would sell within 12 months. Back then, following in the same order, only 10% of Millennials said they would sell while Gen Z (6%), Gen X (10%), Baby Boomers (12%) and Silent Generation (3%).

While surprised at the numbers reporting they will sell, I am not overly shocked by the youth movement. Our younger generations are looking for more space and potentially newer amenities and locations as their lifestyle and job needs change. The older generations, potentially already settled in a home they want to "age in place," don't have a reason to leave.

Here are some things we may see play out in the coming months in real estate:

  • Mortgage rates may rise with most predicting 2022 rates will be in the high 3% range. We should expect that any increase in rates would pull some potential buyers out of the market.
  • Assuming we can get COVID under control, at some point the "return to work" movement would begin in earnest. That would pull further buyers out of our market as they won't be able to relocate to more affordable Northwest Louisiana.
  • Buyer demand would then begin to slow.
  • Inventory levels can then begin to slowly catch up.
  • Price gains would begin to moderate.

I say all of this knowing it is not going to be a quick fix. It will take time and I assume prices will continue to rise pretty dramatically over the next year. But, it is important to recognize that prior to the Great Recession, the national median home price NEVER went down over the previous year. What will likely happen with prices is that they will someday return to more traditional 3-5% annual increases.

Once again, I need to point out that if you are – or have considered selling your home – please get in touch with one of our agents. They can answer any questions you might have, create a roadmap for you and also potentially connect with you with a great agent in the city or town you are thinking of relocating too. And, if you are doing a crosstown move, obviously we can help here too.

INVENTORY

Now let's get into the "nitty gritty" starting with inventory levels. We are once again seeing a similar story play out. If you take out the outliers at the below $100,000 and above $500,000 price points, we remain at all-time low supply levels. But even with the top and bottom of the market included, we are still below the traditional 6-month supply levels that indicate a balanced market where neither buyer nor seller has a negotiating advantage. Clearly, as the below chart shows, we remain in a seller's market:

Price Range

# Homes That Came on the Market in November

Current Inventory

Month Supply

Total

492

899

1.8

$100,000 & less

91

263

4.3

$100,000-$200,000

174

279

1.6

$200,000-$300,000

136

154

1.2

$300,000-$400,000

50

84

2.0

$400,000-$500,000

20

42

1.8

$500,000-$600,000

8

25

3.1

$600,000+

13

52

5.8

 

DEMAND

Our shortage of available homes is exacerbated by the strong buyer demand in Caddo, Bossier and Desoto Parishes. Demand correlates into sales. Typically in November, the three parishes will combine for 362 homes sales. But this year, we came in at 446 which is a 19% increase over that rolling five-year average. This is one of the highest November sales months in history but behind last year's COVID-caused buyer's frenzy of 493.

While we remain up 11% for the year in home sales compared to 2020, the demand compared to 2019, when COVID wasn't part of our lives, is up 24%!

You will see in the chart below that the number of sales in Caddo Parish dwarfs Bossier and Desoto. But this is a direct correlation to inventory levels in each Parish. For example, there are currently 626 homes for sale in Caddo, only 224 in Bossier and a paltry 27 in Desoto.

Price Range

YoY Number of Home Sales NW LOUISIANA
(% change over 2020

YoY Number of Home Sales in Bossier Parish (% change over 2020

YoY Number of Home Sales in Caddo Parish (% change over 2020

YoY Number of Home Sales in Desoto Parish (% change over 2020

Total

5,556 (+11%)

2,225 (+8%)

3,156 (+15%)

175 (-20%)

$100,000 & less

821 (-16%)

195 (-21%)

597 (-13%)

29 (-31%)

$100,000-$200,000

2,001 (+8%)

645 (-4%)

1,293 (+15%)

63 (+15%)

$200,000-$300,000

1,626 (+17%)

804 (+6%)

789 (+38%)

     33 (-50%)

$300,000-$400,000

625 (+31%)

370 (+49%)

227 (+23%)

28 (-36%)

$400,000-$500,000

283 (+62%)

139 (+66%)

129 (+59%)

16 (+45%)

$500,000-
$600,000

91 (+25%)

     41 (+32%)

49 (+20%)

1 (0%)

$600,000+

109 (+79%)

32 (60%)

72 (+76%)

5 (400%)

 

This chart shows overall Northwest Louisiana sales and how they have changed over the last 5 years. The increases are dramatic:

Price Range

November 2021 Sales

November 2019 Sales

November 2017 Sales

% change over last 5 years

Total

446

330

320

45.6%

$100,000 & less

61

69

82

-25.6%

$100,000-$200,000

173

118

137

26.2%

$200,000-$300,000

128

91

68

88.2%

$300,000-$400,000

43

35

22

95.5%

$400,000-$500,000

24

10

8

200.0%

$500,000+

17

7

             3      

467.7%

 

Another piece of evidence showcasing our high demand is the speed of the market. In Northwest Louisiana last month, homes are selling in just 11 days almost half of last year's mark of 21 days

PRICES

The simple math of the low supply vs. high demand imbalance should equate to rising prices. And it does! Looking ONLY at November, we had a median price of $194,500, up 2% over a year ago. This means that of the 446 homes sold in our three parishes, the middle of the list was about $195,000. But when we compare the average price for the month, we were up 6% to $219,899.

For the entire year, in median price we are up 7% to $198,000 and in average price we're up 11% to $221,061.

I continue to be amazed by the rise of prices nationally too. NAR reported that the median priced home in the U.S. costs $353,900, an increase of 13.9% over last November. At least we know that Northwest Louisiana remains one of the most affordable markets in the U.S. Our homes are about $132,000 cheaper!

The below charts compares us to the rest of the U.S. as we utilize NAR's Existing Home Sales report as a guide

 

U.S.

(change over Nov. '20)

Northwest LA

(change over Nov. '20)

Median Price

$353,900/+13.9%

$194,500/+2%

Number of Sales

6.46 million/-2.0%
(annualized)

446/-10%

Inventory

1.11 million/-13.3%

899/-18%

Months' Supply

2.1/2.3

1.8/2.4

Median Days on Market

18/21

11/21

 

As I close out this month's blog, I want to encourage those who want even more information to utilize the Coldwell Banker Gosslee Monthly Report that shares great data from the Northwest Louisiana Association of Realtors MLS.

I wish all of you a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

And once again, thank you for making us the top real estate company in Northwest Louisiana for the 29th straight year! Wow!

December
21

October 2021 Market Overview 
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes only)

To view or download the full report click here.

November Summary:  Strong sales for a November.  Average price higher again.  Inventory levels unchanged.

Sales:  Sales in November we well above average but did not top sales from last year same month. There were 446 sales posted this November versus 526 last month and 493 last year.  The 5 year average for November is only 362 so we were about 19% above our normal sales average for November.  Year over year comparison is starting to narrow though as the second half of last year's numbers get figured in.  Sales year to date for 2021 are now up just +11% compared to as much as +29% back in May.  Compared to 2019 though, sales are up +24% YTD.  These results differ though when you drill down on each parish.  Sales in Desoto parish are actually down –20% this year due to the very low inventory available for sale. Currently, there are only 27 available listings on the market in all price ranges in Desoto parish. Caddo has the most available homes for sale at 626 while Bossier only has 224. This larger availability of inventory is primarily the reason Caddo has seen a larger % increase in sales this year.  

Unit Sales YTD by price range vs. last year:

Inventory:  Listing inventory bottomed in May of this year at 774. Since then, it has climbed back to the low 900's and has hovered at that level for the last few months.  There are now 899 active listings on the market versus 911 last month, 1099 last year, and 1956 in 2019.  With 446 homes sold in November and only 899 currently on the market, the Monthly Supply (using the 12 month trailing average) of homes is now 1.8 which is unchanged from last month. This is incredibly low though for the Shreveport-Bossier market.  Just 12 months ago, the monthly supply was 2.4, and two years ago it was 4.9. There were 492 new listings that came on the market in November in all price ranges but the majority were put under contract shortly after hitting the market.  There are currently 590 properties in pending sale status.  This is down from 689 last month.   This decline in buyer activity is expected as December and January all always the slowest months of the year.   It will be very telling for 2022 to see how buyer activity goes in February next year.

PricesWith the continued low inventory and strong sales activity in the higher price ranges, the average home price continued to climb. Year to date, the average home price through November is $221,061 versus $199,741 last year. On a price per square foot basis, sale prices thru November averaged $108.49 per sq.ft. versus $99.64 last year. 

November 2021 Comparative Market Statistics
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, Desoto Parishes Only)

November 2021 Absorption Rates
Shreveport/Bossier, LA – (Caddo, Bossier, & Desoto Parishes Only)
The following figures are through the month of November 2021
Currently, there are 899 total homes for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 499 homes have sold per month on average.
That's a 1.8 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 492 homes came on the market.

Currently there are 263 homes priced below $100,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 75 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 3.5 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 91 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 279 homes priced between $100,000 and $199,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 180 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.6 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 174 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 154 homes priced between $200,000 and $299,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 145 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.1 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 136 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 84 homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 56 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's an 1.5 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 50 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 42 homes priced between $400,000 and $499,999 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 25 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 1.7 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 24 homes came on the market in this price range.

Currently there are 77 homes priced above $500,000 for sale in Shreveport/Bossier.
Over the last 12 months, 18 homes have sold per month on average in this price range.
That's a 4.3 month supply of homes if no more homes come on the market.
Last month 21 homes came on the market in this price range.

Important Note: A 6 month supply is considered to be a balanced market.
Under 6 months is a seller's market.
Over 6 months is a buyer's market.
Data Source: Northwest Louisiana Association of Realtors MLS, Inc 12/14/2021
Author: Brad Gosslee of Coldwell Banker Gosslee
Information believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.

Login to My Homefinder

Login to My Homefinder